There was a time when you could predict the financial direction of the breeding stock market, by plotting the price of yearlings. The two graphs usually operated in tandem, but that’s not the case now. The yearling market is populated by business people, and as we’ve said so often before, the haemorrhage in South African yearling prices has not been as severe as it has in other realms: the buying public deserve kudos for this, and their on-going fortitude.
Against that, the bottom appears to have fallen out of the broodmare market for the time being, and that trickles down to the price of weanlings as well. The evidence of the Cape Broodmare Sale just over a month ago and again at the KZN version yesterday, suggests that there is a fear among breeders, unsupported by trends in the yearling market, and without foundation in history. Yes, this is probably the most difficult economic period in most of our lifetimes, and yes, we’re engulfed by pessimists wherever we look. The markets tell you though that these times are the font of all opportunity, and at Summerhill, whether you ascribe it to luck or to reckless optimism, we’ve always benefited from these opportunities. In the end, if there’s a logic to markets, it lies in supply and demand, and if there is a return to anything like normality ahead, the markets will surely be undersupplied. This translates into a simple equation: those with the means of production will have the young stock on hand when this happens, and as we’ve done over the three or four difficult periods of the past, we and those of our clients who’ve stuck to their knitting, have prospered as a result.
Great harvests come from arid sources, and there is little to fear right now, but fear itself.
Editor’s note: Between our clients and ourselves, we’ve acquired a number of mares in recent months. If you’re looking to capitalize on what we see as a golden opportunity ahead, you’re welcome to climb aboard.
Linda Norval 27 (0) 33 263 1081
or email email@example.com